Estudos sobre efeitos do aborto: cancro

The Breast Cancer Epidemic: Modeling and Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors

by

Patrick S. Carroll, M.A.

Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Volume 12, Number3, Fall 2007

ABSTRACT

Using national cancer registration data for female breast cancer incidence in eight European countries—England & Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Finland, and Denmark—for which there is also comprehensive data on abortion incidence, trends are examined and future trends predicted. Seven reproductive risk factors are considered as possible explanatory variables. Induced abortion is found to be the best predictor, and fertility is also a useful predictor. Forecasts are made using a linear regression model with these explanatory variables. Previous forecasts using the same model and incidence data for years through 1997 for England &Wales are compared with numbers of cancers observed in years from 1998–2004 in an Appendix. The forecast predicted 100.5% of the cancers observed in 2003, and 97.5% of those observed in 2004.

CONCLUSION

The increase in breast cancer incidence appears to be best explained by an increase in abortion rates, especially nulliparous abortions, and lower fertility. And the social gradient, which is not explained by fertility, seems also attributable circumstantially to abortion. A linear regression model of successive birth cohorts of women with abortion and fertility as explanatory variables fitted to the cancer incidence up to 1977 has produced forecasts that have performed well in the years 1998–2004 in Great Britain (AppendixA). The new forecasts for eight countries can be tested in the coming years.